The Daily Reality Check: Demography is Destiny by Mike Lux
For my friend Tony, who seems to be in need of a reason for hope...
From bushrecall.org:
With the economy slowing down dramatically, and bad news about the Iraq War back on page one of the newspaper, George Bush's re-election prospects have taken a serious blow over the last few days. But even if the headlines were brighter, I've been thinking lately that longer term demographic trends are spelling trouble for Bush. Demography is destiny in most elections and Bush is going to have a lot of trouble winning the same percentage of the vote he did in 2000 in several different demographic groups. Here are some examples:
Small town/rural voters: Bush had the highest numbers of any presidential candidate since Nixon's 1972 landslide among small town and rural voters. Gore and Lieberman did not have personalities that fit with these kinds of voters. Their campaign didn't pay much attention to rural areas, and the Lewinsky scandal didn't help the Democratic image in those parts. With a bad rural economy these last four years, the Edwards pick, and a campaign determined to focus a lot of attention on small town politicking, it's virtually impossible for Bush to match his 2000 margins in this part of the electorate.
Veterans and active military families: The unhappiness in Veteran/active military quarters with Bush has become one of the dominant themes of this campaign, and polling is now showing that the anecdotal stories of the past year are no illusion. Republicans normally win 60 percent or more of this slice of the electorate; the last polling of veterans has Kerry at 47 percent and Bush at 46 percent.
Gays and Lesbians: If gays and lesbians perceive a Republican as more tolerant and open on gay rights, a Republican candidate for president can get 35-40 percent of the gay vote and in 2000 that was close to what Bush ended up getting. Bush has not only changed his position from the 2000 campaign on the gay marriage constitutional amendment, but actually made it a major theme of his campaign. His numbers among gay/lesbians voters are almost certain to shrink.
Arab-Americans: It's quite remarkable to think that the George Bush of the Patriot Act is the same George Bush who got over 60 percent of Arab-American votes in 2000. According to the latest polling I've seen, his numbers among this demographic group may plummet 30 percent or more, because of the way he has abused Arab-American and Muslim civil rights.
Now remember, this is a candidate who lost by more than 500,000 votes in 2000. Remember as well that one of Bush's top strategists pointed out that with the growth of Latinos and other immigrants, in terms of voting population, that if Bush gets the same percentages in terms of ethnic groups in 2004 as he did in 2000, he'll lose by more than 2,000,000 votes nationwide. This is a candidate who has to make up some votes from somewhere instead of shedding them. And it doesn't help that many of the voters from the above mentioned demographic groups are heavily concentrated in swing states.
So what's the Bush strategy on demographics going to be? The damage done with Arab-Americans and the gay/lesbian community cannot be repaired given the policy decisions they've made, so they aren't likely to spend much time trying to kiss and make up with those slices of the electorate. They will, however, do everything in their power to keep any losses among veterans/active service military and rural/small town voters to a minimum. They'll also try to make up ground among Latino voters, white suburban married women, and white blue collar men. But the economy has made it tough to make gains among blue collar men. And a recent poll by Stan Greenberg notes that not only is Bush currently trailing his 2000 vote among Latinos, he has been dropping in recent months instead of gaining. (Bush got 35 percent of the Latino vote in 2000, and his strategists have been saying they need to get 38-40 percent this year. They are currently getting 30 percent of Latinos.) How much ground they can make up amongst suburban married women is up in the air, but right now it doesn't look like that demographic group is moving dramatically toward them, and the extremist positions they've taken on choice, stem cell research , the environment, and gay rights aren't helping them any with this part of the electorate.
Bush's other hope is that with a strong field operation, and by beating the drums on the social issues, he gets a higher turn out among white evangelicals and other Republican base groups. This is one place where I have no doubt Bush's strategy will be successful. Unfortunately for Bush, though, the field operation by Democratic groups will be the best it's ever been, and he has certainly motivated the Democratic base to turn out, so I think the gains Bush makes in his base turnout will be at least balanced and perhaps exceeded by Democratic base turnout.
In elections, demography really is destiny. And this year, the demographics are not looking so good for the Bush re-election strategy. Their team is good at threading the needle, but they may have run out of material.
Daily Reality Check Archive
From bushrecall.org:
With the economy slowing down dramatically, and bad news about the Iraq War back on page one of the newspaper, George Bush's re-election prospects have taken a serious blow over the last few days. But even if the headlines were brighter, I've been thinking lately that longer term demographic trends are spelling trouble for Bush. Demography is destiny in most elections and Bush is going to have a lot of trouble winning the same percentage of the vote he did in 2000 in several different demographic groups. Here are some examples:
Small town/rural voters: Bush had the highest numbers of any presidential candidate since Nixon's 1972 landslide among small town and rural voters. Gore and Lieberman did not have personalities that fit with these kinds of voters. Their campaign didn't pay much attention to rural areas, and the Lewinsky scandal didn't help the Democratic image in those parts. With a bad rural economy these last four years, the Edwards pick, and a campaign determined to focus a lot of attention on small town politicking, it's virtually impossible for Bush to match his 2000 margins in this part of the electorate.
Veterans and active military families: The unhappiness in Veteran/active military quarters with Bush has become one of the dominant themes of this campaign, and polling is now showing that the anecdotal stories of the past year are no illusion. Republicans normally win 60 percent or more of this slice of the electorate; the last polling of veterans has Kerry at 47 percent and Bush at 46 percent.
Gays and Lesbians: If gays and lesbians perceive a Republican as more tolerant and open on gay rights, a Republican candidate for president can get 35-40 percent of the gay vote and in 2000 that was close to what Bush ended up getting. Bush has not only changed his position from the 2000 campaign on the gay marriage constitutional amendment, but actually made it a major theme of his campaign. His numbers among gay/lesbians voters are almost certain to shrink.
Arab-Americans: It's quite remarkable to think that the George Bush of the Patriot Act is the same George Bush who got over 60 percent of Arab-American votes in 2000. According to the latest polling I've seen, his numbers among this demographic group may plummet 30 percent or more, because of the way he has abused Arab-American and Muslim civil rights.
Now remember, this is a candidate who lost by more than 500,000 votes in 2000. Remember as well that one of Bush's top strategists pointed out that with the growth of Latinos and other immigrants, in terms of voting population, that if Bush gets the same percentages in terms of ethnic groups in 2004 as he did in 2000, he'll lose by more than 2,000,000 votes nationwide. This is a candidate who has to make up some votes from somewhere instead of shedding them. And it doesn't help that many of the voters from the above mentioned demographic groups are heavily concentrated in swing states.
So what's the Bush strategy on demographics going to be? The damage done with Arab-Americans and the gay/lesbian community cannot be repaired given the policy decisions they've made, so they aren't likely to spend much time trying to kiss and make up with those slices of the electorate. They will, however, do everything in their power to keep any losses among veterans/active service military and rural/small town voters to a minimum. They'll also try to make up ground among Latino voters, white suburban married women, and white blue collar men. But the economy has made it tough to make gains among blue collar men. And a recent poll by Stan Greenberg notes that not only is Bush currently trailing his 2000 vote among Latinos, he has been dropping in recent months instead of gaining. (Bush got 35 percent of the Latino vote in 2000, and his strategists have been saying they need to get 38-40 percent this year. They are currently getting 30 percent of Latinos.) How much ground they can make up amongst suburban married women is up in the air, but right now it doesn't look like that demographic group is moving dramatically toward them, and the extremist positions they've taken on choice, stem cell research , the environment, and gay rights aren't helping them any with this part of the electorate.
Bush's other hope is that with a strong field operation, and by beating the drums on the social issues, he gets a higher turn out among white evangelicals and other Republican base groups. This is one place where I have no doubt Bush's strategy will be successful. Unfortunately for Bush, though, the field operation by Democratic groups will be the best it's ever been, and he has certainly motivated the Democratic base to turn out, so I think the gains Bush makes in his base turnout will be at least balanced and perhaps exceeded by Democratic base turnout.
In elections, demography really is destiny. And this year, the demographics are not looking so good for the Bush re-election strategy. Their team is good at threading the needle, but they may have run out of material.
Daily Reality Check Archive
posted by Price at 8:30 PM
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